NEW PUBLISHER BUSINESS PLAN
Seamus:
I am creating a business plan for a small publishing business. We have one project in the works we want to focus on, and hope it will be successful enough to warrant follow-up material. Our goal is slow, steady growth. Right now we are leaning toward printing 1000-1,500 copies, and placing a few ads in some gaming magazines. This is by no means final. We have been getting a lot of different advice from different people (some say only use distributors, others say only do direct sales, some say print a run of 100 and build customers face-to-face). I want to hear what others have to say on this. I won't take it personally, so don't worry.
Eero Tuovinen:
First, I really have to say something about the other thread: I can't imagine why or how a chamber of commerce business advisor would know anything about the rpg market. It's strictly a specialty market, very global and heavily fragmented. Of course they can tell you about good business practices in general, but I'd take stranger off the Internet more seriously when it comes to practicalities like distribution options, advertisement venues and printing.
So here are some thoughts that come to my mind about this:
What sort of gaming product is this? Is it traditional (directed at long-term players of D&D and its kin) or experimental? "Mature" or intended for all ages? System-based or fiction-based? For beginners or experienced gamers? This sort of target audience information interests me, as that influences the marketing plan quite a bit. The rpg scene nowadays is relatively fractured, the people interested in everything are a small minority. This can be seen in the Internet, where we have many rpg communities with pretty different favourite games and concerns.What magazines? There aren't that many rpg magazines around anymore that I know of, unless you mean the retailer magazines. In general, I'd be rather helpless if I had to build serious brand recognition among the gamer populace with hard advertising; perhaps I'd go for a sizable Internet campaign and snazzy webpages or something, magazines seem pretty passe to me.Who's going to buy those 1000 games, and over what sort of timeframe? The best publishers using indie techniques can sell a 1000 copy print run of an established hit game in a reasonable time, but there are something like three of those over the entire field. The typical well-prepared small publisher may expect to sell 300 copies of a good game during the first year - that's more or less where I'm at. I understand that the traditional distribution-based model isn't doing much better on average.I understand that Americans have some weird taxation problems with long-standing stocks of books. I'm not really familiar with it, but apparently there are tax penalties for holding stock over the fiscal year - you get taxed for the stock as profit or something weird, I don't know. So might be a factor, because you're going to be sitting on those books quite a while.Is this a product with long-term standing power? Some roleplaying games are evergreens and may be printed up with pretty good confidence in them selling with time; they're not going to grow old. This is mostly an indie phenomenon, though, as the mainstream is trained to expect a new edition of the game every five years. But in principle this is something to think about honestly: is your game really going to be culturally relevant for the timeframe it's going to take you to shift that stock, or are you in danger of being stuck with a bunch of books that nobody wants? In effect, I'm wondering whether your product is one for the ages.But that's just first impressions. The fundamental reason for why I don't view a a large print run and a hard marketing campaign as winner propositions is that the market simply isn't there insofar as I can see. Building name among gamers takes time, and no game will become a hit just because of its quality in the short term. The only way to get an immediately well-selling game is to already have a market presence as a company and leverage that into publicity, like WW did with Exalted. It's like... sex: putting everything into a flashy start isn't going to get you anywhere, you need to start slow and build up into the climax. Hard (money-bought) advertising, store presence and other grandesse only works for you after you've developed an audience that cares and will thus nab at your publicity.
So that's the basis of why I advice that going slow and being conservative is the way to go at first. The very worst thing that can happen is that you'll lose some percentage of your potential profits because you underestimated your print run and had to print more. Even then you're saving in worries and storage space, so it's not all a loss - not to speak of the fact that printing in smaller runs allows you to fix typos and in general stay flexible in your publishing strategy. Don't underestimate the power of disappointment, it weights pretty heavily on you to see those 30 boxes of books nobody wants; better to start with realistic numbers and go from there.
So what's realistic? Depends on how good your marketing resources are. These are the things you want:
Connections and internet status. It helps if active roleplayers know you and your work, as those are likely then to check it out and help with the early grassroots marketing. If you're essentially unknown, you'll have to work much harder to get people interested. Even a couple of friends can help a lot if they're also active in the scene and willing to put in a good word for your product.Time to go to conventions and stores. Personal meeting is practically the only reliable marketing for an unknown product, designer and company. You can sell almost everything in modest quantities if you have the patience, which allows you to seed your game: go to three conventions, sell a hundred copies, let those people build your reputation. Ideally you'll encourage them somehow to write about your game in the Internet - and of course, at this point your game actually has to deliver or it'll all be for nothing.Time to hang out in the Internet. Diligent participation in web communities and pushing your game by writing a blog, press releases, free material, etc. can be the difference between anonymity and becoming a fixture for a web community.A good game. There are degrees to this, but basically your game has to be at least the best in the narrowly special thing it does, and it's even better if it's actually a powerful tool for doing many different things. Alternatively, the game has to be so pretty that it inspires fans, but that's difficult to do from an unestablished position. This is absolutely key to soft (free or near-free) marketing, simply because the second-best game will never get mentioned in the highly jaded Internet communities.If you're starting from zero on all of the above, then I recommend printing up a 100 copies of your game and starting a webstore courageously while also hitting the convention circuit. You can sell a hundred copies of anything (up to you to decide whether this particular product is good enough for it to be moral), so that'll be valuable experience with negligible risk. After this you can do some real evaluation of what the gamers think of your game - it's an all-around good deal, as you get experience, feedback, a chance to correct the product and information for how large a print run you should do next.
If you're already confident in your connections and skills and the game above all, then print out 500 copies and cross your fingers. If you're really successful, you'll have sold those 500 within 1,5 years and can then plan for a new printing. This is the level to which a competent indie publisher can shoot for as a one-man operation and hope to fulfill consistently.
Print a 1000 copy run only if you've already done this thing for a while and know what you're doing. And this includes having a completely realistic image of how good your game is. And when I say "knowing how good your game is" I don't mean how well you like it yourself, I mean what the audience will think about it. Also, don't do a 1000 copy run if you don't have a firm idea of how you're going to get to distribution with it - these numbers are simply too much for direct sales, you're going to need efficient distribution. Be aware that the American games distribution is a mess and all the more so with the current market climate; don't commit to printing anything before you have the distribution locked down - remember that the smaller print runs from above can help you with this, as you can demonstrate a real and growing audience for your product.
Ultimately your marketing connections limit your capabilities in selling a game dramatically, it's not at all about taking risks and hoping for the best. Stores won't order your game magically even if you get a distribution contract. There is a limited amount of interest from the Internet-connected gamers. You can get a pretty good handle for how all of these factors can be leveraged into a realistic business plan if you research the experiences others have had: if 20 designers have found out that they can sell 200 copies of a good game to an Internet audience centered on websites A, B and C, then that's real data. If an established mid-range mainstream company can push 300 copies of a new sourcebook into distribution, that is real data as well - why would you do better? Find out these things and be realistic about how well you can do compared to these people who are right now doing the work.
Still, if you want to hit it big right off the bat, at least do it right: in this day and age there is no reason at all not to print up a dozen POD copies of your product and hit the distributors and retailers well in advance of your shipping date. With 1500 copies to move you'll want to get firm commitments from as many partners as possible; in traditional retail you'll move over 50% of the product's lifetime sales during the release, so there is no reason at all to work on hopes and vague imagination in these things: go ask those people whether they're willing to order your stuff, and how much of it. Most products never see a reorder, so the first order already tells you the scale you'll be operating at. The current atmosphere among the retailers will be the main determinant of how much of your game you'll move; will they be interested in a new company with an unproven product this year?
Anyway, that's roughly my view on these things. What's yours? Tell us more about the strategy and what sort of marketing you're planning.
Seamus:
Quote from: Eero Tuovinen on April 02, 2009, 02:26:55 PM
First, I really have to say something about the other thread: I can't imagine why or how a chamber of commerce business advisor would know anything about the rpg market. It's strictly a specialty market, very global and heavily fragmented. Of course they can tell you about good business practices in general, but I'd take stranger off the Internet more seriously when it comes to practicalities like distribution options, advertisement venues and printing.
So here are some thoughts that come to my mind about this:
What sort of gaming product is this? Is it traditional (directed at long-term players of D&D and its kin) or experimental? "Mature" or intended for all ages? System-based or fiction-based? For beginners or experienced gamers? This sort of target audience information interests me, as that influences the marketing plan quite a bit. The rpg scene nowadays is relatively fractured, the people interested in everything are a small minority. This can be seen in the Internet, where we have many rpg communities with pretty different favourite games and concerns.What magazines? There aren't that many rpg magazines around anymore that I know of, unless you mean the retailer magazines. In general, I'd be rather helpless if I had to build serious brand recognition among the gamer populace with hard advertising; perhaps I'd go for a sizable Internet campaign and snazzy webpages or something, magazines seem pretty passe to me.Who's going to buy those 1000 games, and over what sort of timeframe? The best publishers using indie techniques can sell a 1000 copy print run of an established hit game in a reasonable time, but there are something like three of those over the entire field. The typical well-prepared small publisher may expect to sell 300 copies of a good game during the first year - that's more or less where I'm at. I understand that the traditional distribution-based model isn't doing much better on average.I understand that Americans have some weird taxation problems with long-standing stocks of books. I'm not really familiar with it, but apparently there are tax penalties for holding stock over the fiscal year - you get taxed for the stock as profit or something weird, I don't know. So might be a factor, because you're going to be sitting on those books quite a while.Is this a product with long-term standing power? Some roleplaying games are evergreens and may be printed up with pretty good confidence in them selling with time; they're not going to grow old. This is mostly an indie phenomenon, though, as the mainstream is trained to expect a new edition of the game every five years. But in principle this is something to think about honestly: is your game really going to be culturally relevant for the timeframe it's going to take you to shift that stock, or are you in danger of being stuck with a bunch of books that nobody wants? In effect, I'm wondering whether your product is one for the ages.But that's just first impressions. The fundamental reason for why I don't view a a large print run and a hard marketing campaign as winner propositions is that the market simply isn't there insofar as I can see. Building name among gamers takes time, and no game will become a hit just because of its quality in the short term. The only way to get an immediately well-selling game is to already have a market presence as a company and leverage that into publicity, like WW did with Exalted. It's like... sex: putting everything into a flashy start isn't going to get you anywhere, you need to start slow and build up into the climax. Hard (money-bought) advertising, store presence and other grandesse only works for you after you've developed an audience that cares and will thus nab at your publicity.
So that's the basis of why I advice that going slow and being conservative is the way to go at first. The very worst thing that can happen is that you'll lose some percentage of your potential profits because you underestimated your print run and had to print more. Even then you're saving in worries and storage space, so it's not all a loss - not to speak of the fact that printing in smaller runs allows you to fix typos and in general stay flexible in your publishing strategy. Don't underestimate the power of disappointment, it weights pretty heavily on you to see those 30 boxes of books nobody wants; better to start with realistic numbers and go from there.
So what's realistic? Depends on how good your marketing resources are. These are the things you want:
Connections and internet status. It helps if active roleplayers know you and your work, as those are likely then to check it out and help with the early grassroots marketing. If you're essentially unknown, you'll have to work much harder to get people interested. Even a couple of friends can help a lot if they're also active in the scene and willing to put in a good word for your product.Time to go to conventions and stores. Personal meeting is practically the only reliable marketing for an unknown product, designer and company. You can sell almost everything in modest quantities if you have the patience, which allows you to seed your game: go to three conventions, sell a hundred copies, let those people build your reputation. Ideally you'll encourage them somehow to write about your game in the Internet - and of course, at this point your game actually has to deliver or it'll all be for nothing.Time to hang out in the Internet. Diligent participation in web communities and pushing your game by writing a blog, press releases, free material, etc. can be the difference between anonymity and becoming a fixture for a web community.A good game. There are degrees to this, but basically your game has to be at least the best in the narrowly special thing it does, and it's even better if it's actually a powerful tool for doing many different things. Alternatively, the game has to be so pretty that it inspires fans, but that's difficult to do from an unestablished position. This is absolutely key to soft (free or near-free) marketing, simply because the second-best game will never get mentioned in the highly jaded Internet communities.If you're starting from zero on all of the above, then I recommend printing up a 100 copies of your game and starting a webstore courageously while also hitting the convention circuit. You can sell a hundred copies of anything (up to you to decide whether this particular product is good enough for it to be moral), so that'll be valuable experience with negligible risk. After this you can do some real evaluation of what the gamers think of your game - it's an all-around good deal, as you get experience, feedback, a chance to correct the product and information for how large a print run you should do next.
If you're already confident in your connections and skills and the game above all, then print out 500 copies and cross your fingers. If you're really successful, you'll have sold those 500 within 1,5 years and can then plan for a new printing. This is the level to which a competent indie publisher can shoot for as a one-man operation and hope to fulfill consistently.
Print a 1000 copy run only if you've already done this thing for a while and know what you're doing. And this includes having a completely realistic image of how good your game is. And when I say "knowing how good your game is" I don't mean how well you like it yourself, I mean what the audience will think about it. Also, don't do a 1000 copy run if you don't have a firm idea of how you're going to get to distribution with it - these numbers are simply too much for direct sales, you're going to need efficient distribution. Be aware that the American games distribution is a mess and all the more so with the current market climate; don't commit to printing anything before you have the distribution locked down - remember that the smaller print runs from above can help you with this, as you can demonstrate a real and growing audience for your product.
Ultimately your marketing connections limit your capabilities in selling a game dramatically, it's not at all about taking risks and hoping for the best. Stores won't order your game magically even if you get a distribution contract. There is a limited amount of interest from the Internet-connected gamers. You can get a pretty good handle for how all of these factors can be leveraged into a realistic business plan if you research the experiences others have had: if 20 designers have found out that they can sell 200 copies of a good game to an Internet audience centered on websites A, B and C, then that's real data. If an established mid-range mainstream company can push 300 copies of a new sourcebook into distribution, that is real data as well - why would you do better? Find out these things and be realistic about how well you can do compared to these people who are right now doing the work.
Still, if you want to hit it big right off the bat, at least do it right: in this day and age there is no reason at all not to print up a dozen POD copies of your product and hit the distributors and retailers well in advance of your shipping date. With 1500 copies to move you'll want to get firm commitments from as many partners as possible; in traditional retail you'll move over 50% of the product's lifetime sales during the release, so there is no reason at all to work on hopes and vague imagination in these things: go ask those people whether they're willing to order your stuff, and how much of it. Most products never see a reorder, so the first order already tells you the scale you'll be operating at. The current atmosphere among the retailers will be the main determinant of how much of your game you'll move; will they be interested in a new company with an unproven product this year?
Anyway, that's roughly my view on these things. What's yours? Tell us more about the strategy and what sort of marketing you're planning.
Our plan was to go to distributors before printing, with a PDF or prototype. How that goes will largely determine where we head from there. For advertising we were going to take spots out in magazines like Kobold Quarterly, and do some internet campaigns.. Its about 75 dollars for a small ad. I haven't fully investigated our marketing strategy yet, since right now I am focusing on learning the more boring aspects of running my own business. As I said,we are in the early stages. If we need to lower the numbers we print, we will do so. But our goal isn't to be a indie publisher. It is to achieve steady growth and become a name in the industry. We understand that is a lofty goal, and are fine falling down in the process.
Seth M. Drebitko:
I would say a couple things to note.
1. The print run is huge I would scale that back to around 100 max "at first" really get the feelers out their in the indie communities like the forge and stuff to fine tune the game as it will almost need revision. Nothing could be worse than dropping your starting capital in a shaky print run.
2. Once you feel you are truly prepared to go mainstream try one avenue to attack at a time. For example try just running an ad in one magazine see how that works for you, if it does keep it up and move on. No sense in burning all your money at once until you have again tested the waters.
By slowly scaling into the marketing you don’t run the risk of blitzing through your stock either if your product is a hit. Say first week of the mag out you sell 65 copies that is pretty hot dump the profit into bulking up your print run and expanding your marketing reach.
Just my 2 cents
Regards, Seth
Seamus:
Quote from: Seth M. Bashwinger on April 02, 2009, 06:27:46 PM
I would say a couple things to note.
1. The print run is huge I would scale that back to around 100 max "at first" really get the feelers out their in the indie communities like the forge and stuff to fine tune the game as it will almost need revision. Nothing could be worse than dropping your starting capital in a shaky print run.
2. Once you feel you are truly prepared to go mainstream try one avenue to attack at a time. For example try just running an ad in one magazine see how that works for you, if it does keep it up and move on. No sense in burning all your money at once until you have again tested the waters.
By slowly scaling into the marketing you don’t run the risk of blitzing through your stock either if your product is a hit. Say first week of the mag out you sell 65 copies that is pretty hot dump the profit into bulking up your print run and expanding your marketing reach.
Just my 2 cents
Regards, Seth
Thanks for the feedback. How does doing a print run that small effect profit? Wouldn't I need to charge a lot more for each book? I keep hearing 500 is the most economical run for a small publisher starting out. Where can I get good information on Printing so I don't get taken advantage of?
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