[WoD & Exalted] Currency and Dice Pools
Filip Luszczyk:
Actually, yes, I noticed that too.
Playing NWoD, I used to expect roughly one success per three dice. Playing Exalted, I used to expect roughly one success per two dice. In the latter, due to monstrous dice pools tending towards the average, this estimation was closer to the actual result more often.
My resource management strategy was strongly informed by those estimations. Also, I recall in both games we had house rules moving some dice boosting effects from before to after the roll. In Exalted, for instance, instead of declaring the use of defensive Charms before any dice hit the table, we used to only do that once the attacker's successes were known. I think we also used to spend Willpower after the roll (which wasn't that good an idea in hindsight, since it resulted in cancelling that single bomb-crafting botch that could have proved really interesting otherwise).
Now, I'm posting this just after a session of Mouse Guard and come to think about it, I've been doing that estimation thing a lot today. That is, when positive results were really needed, expecting roughly one success per two dice, I've been taking all steps to build a pool of more that twice the obstacle. When positive results weren't needed that much, and the pool was already at least twice the obstacle, I've been careful not to waste resources (or looking for opportunities for hindering the character to generate extra resources).
Incidentally, similarly to our Exalted and WoD house rules, in Mouse Guard you never start adding bonuses before the obstacle is set.
SamuelRiv:
Quote from: Erik Weissengruber on October 14, 2010, 07:56:27 AM
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I got some real world feedback on an idea and that's all I was looking for. Thanks y'all.
Fair enough, though that becomes the difference between statistics and psychology. For example, we all remember exceptional results much more easily than the mundane, the obvious. Perhaps that's why successes on two dice, in spite having a 1/3 chance of failure in Exalted, are seen by at least one poster as a bankable thing, since it seems so counterintuitive given that the odds are obviously against you with one die.
Possibly. But the same argument can be given the other way, I realize.
Here's another point, to defend my mathematical honor. Eero said correctly that the probability of failure for three dice (in Exalted) was 22%, simply cubing the probability of failure for one die (6/10). My statement was about 13%, obtained by cubing the expectation value of one die, which is 1/2. I did this because I believe expectation values to be more indicative of people's psychological interpretation of the dice roll than the direct answer to the question, "what is the probability of success/failure?". I was answering a slightly different question, "what is the probability of getting zero when rolling three dice, weighted by the amount of successes per roll?", which sounds rather silly, but I swear by it.
So if OP were to do this another way, one interesting question to ask the forum perusers is "When rolling two dice in Exalted, would you be surprised if you succeeded?"
And of course again I'm way off topic. Maybe I just have a problem with taking any risk of failure - probably why I don't play Poker.
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