Doing game probabilities in Excel

[Ry]

Hey Vincent, you mentioned a few times that you had an excel sheet you used to check on probabilities for IAWA. 

How did you go about constructing that?  I know how to calculate a simple probability but the multiple-but-variable round structure of IAWA, possibility of one-vs-many, and the way previous rounds change subsequent rounds defeats me.

[lumpley]

Oh I didn't even.

All I checked was whether, like, d8d8d6 or d12d8 was more likely to win any given single comparison. I didn't check for whole fights at all.

I didn't even use statistics-math. I did it by writing macros to cycle through all the possible rolls for each and spit out the number of times each result came up.

-Vincent

[Ry]

Alright, that means I have a challenge ahead of me.